They are expecting the same to happen this year but they'll be in for a shock.

From 2012 to 2016 nearly 200k Dem's changed their registration to Ind or Rep. These are the Dixiecrats who last time voted for a Dem for president in 1976. That's nearly the 10% D who voted for Romney right there. They're not in the D pool any more.

The 7% or so R are probably Cuban Americans. Obama won about 49% Cuban American vote. They're not going to vote for Trump this time.